Forex Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 05.10.26–11.10.26
Weekly Forex, Gold & Crude Oil Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast
This weekly market analysis covers the expected Elliott Wave structures and potential price scenarios for major Forex currency pairs, Gold (XAU/USD), and WTI Crude Oil for the week of October 5–11, 2026.
The analysis focuses on the principal Elliott Wave scenario, alternative scenario, important support and resistance levels, potential targets, and critical invalidation levels.
EUR/USD Elliott Wave Analysis
Major Takeaways
Main Scenario:
Consider short positions from corrective rallies below 1.1378, with potential targets at 1.1120–1.0895.
Sell Signal: The price remains below 1.1378 after a corrective recovery.
Stop Loss: Above 1.1425
Take Profit: 1.1120–1.0895
Alternative Scenario:
A sustained breakout and consolidation above 1.1378 could invalidate the bearish scenario and open the way toward 1.1566–1.1790.
Buy Signal: Breakout and consolidation above 1.1378.
Stop Loss: Below 1.1335
Take Profit: 1.1566–1.1790
Elliott Wave Analysis
The current structure suggests that EUR/USD remains vulnerable to further downside after the recent corrective recovery failed to establish a sustained bullish breakout.
On the weekly and daily structures, the pair appears to be developing a bearish corrective phase. The short-term structure can therefore be interpreted as a continuation setup as long as the price remains below the critical 1.1378 resistance.
A break below recent support would strengthen the bearish wave scenario and could expose the 1.1120–1.0895 area.
However, a decisive move above 1.1378 would weaken the bearish count and suggest that a larger upward correction is developing.
The latest Elliott Wave outlook also identifies 1.1378 as the key level separating the principal bearish scenario from the alternative bullish scenario.
GBP/USD Elliott Wave Analysis
Major Takeaways
Main Scenario:
Consider short positions from corrective rallies below 1.3308, targeting 1.2938–1.2745.
Sell Signal: The pair remains below 1.3308 following a corrective rebound.
Stop Loss: Above 1.3355
Take Profit: 1.2938–1.2745
Alternative Scenario:
A breakout and sustained consolidation above 1.3308 could shift the outlook toward 1.3560–1.3675.
Buy Signal: Breakout above 1.3308.
Stop Loss: Below 1.3265
Take Profit: 1.3560–1.3675
Elliott Wave Analysis
GBP/USD is showing signs of continued weakness after the recent recovery failed to break the important 1.3308 resistance.
The larger structure can be interpreted as an upward wave of larger degree, while the current movement appears to be developing as a corrective phase within that structure. On the lower time frames, the bearish leg remains active while the price stays below the critical resistance.
If the corrective wave continues to develop to the downside, the next significant areas to monitor are 1.2938 and 1.2745.
The bearish scenario would become considerably weaker if GBP/USD breaks and holds above 1.3308.
The latest Elliott Wave analysis also identifies 1.3308 as the critical pivot for the current weekly structure.
USD/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis
Major Takeaways
Main Scenario:
Consider short positions from corrective rallies below 159.00, targeting 151.76–148.92.
Sell Signal: The price remains below 159.00.
Stop Loss: Above 159.60
Take Profit: 151.76–148.92
Alternative Scenario:
A breakout and consolidation above 159.00 could lead to further upside toward 163.90–167.50.
Buy Signal: Breakout above 159.00.
Stop Loss: Below 158.40
Take Profit: 163.90–167.50
Elliott Wave Analysis
The weekly structure indicates that the larger bullish sequence remains important, but the current price action appears to be developing as a downward correction.
On the daily chart, the first upward wave of the latest larger bullish sequence appears to have completed, followed by the development of a corrective second wave.
The H4 structure suggests that the bearish correction is still capable of extending lower. Therefore, the 159.00 level remains the most important short-term dividing line.
As long as USD/JPY trades below this resistance, the bearish corrective scenario remains favored, with 151.76–148.92 representing the main downside target zone.
A sustained breakout above 159.00 would invalidate this short-term bearish scenario and reopen the path toward 163.90–167.50.
USD/CHF Elliott Wave Analysis
Major Takeaways
Main Scenario:
Consider short positions from corrective recoveries below 0.8400, with targets at 0.7950–0.7755.
Sell Signal: Price remains below 0.8400.
Stop Loss: Above 0.8440
Take Profit: 0.7950–0.7755
Alternative Scenario:
A breakout and consolidation above 0.8400 could trigger a larger recovery toward 0.8588–0.8750.
Buy Signal: Breakout above 0.8400.
Stop Loss: Below 0.8360
Take Profit: 0.8588–0.8750
Elliott Wave Analysis
USD/CHF remains positioned within a potentially bearish larger-degree Elliott Wave structure.
The weekly chart suggests that a fifth wave to the downside is developing. The daily structure indicates that a previous corrective recovery may have completed, while the H4 structure suggests that another bearish leg could be developing.
The critical level for this scenario is 0.8400.
While price remains below this level, the bearish wave count remains dominant and the pair could gradually move toward 0.7950–0.7755.
A decisive move above 0.8400 would change the short-term structure and increase the probability of a recovery toward 0.8588–0.8750.
USD/CAD Elliott Wave Analysis
Major Takeaways
Main Scenario:
Consider long positions from corrections above 1.4144, targeting 1.4400–1.4570.
Buy Signal: The local correction ends and price establishes itself above 1.4144.
Stop Loss: Below 1.4100
Take Profit: 1.4400–1.4570
Alternative Scenario:
A sustained breakdown below 1.4144 could lead to a deeper decline toward 1.3757–1.3548.
Sell Signal: Breakout and consolidation below 1.4144.
Stop Loss: Above 1.4185
Take Profit: 1.3757–1.3548
Elliott Wave Analysis
USD/CAD is showing a potentially bullish larger-degree structure despite the corrective price action seen during the previous months.
The weekly chart suggests that an ascending fifth wave may still be developing. Within this structure, the pair has been forming a corrective phase.
On the daily and H4 time frames, the corrective structure appears to be approaching an area where another bullish leg could develop.
The 1.4144 level is therefore the key technical pivot.
As long as USD/CAD holds above this level, the bullish scenario remains favored, with 1.4400–1.4570 as the main target region.
A decisive breakdown below 1.4144 would invalidate the immediate bullish scenario and expose lower levels around 1.3757–1.3548.
GOLD (XAU/USD) Elliott Wave Analysis
Major Takeaways
Main Scenario:
Consider long positions from corrective declines while Gold remains above 4,098.40, with longer-term targets at 4,900–5,610.
Buy Signal: Price holds above 4,098.40 after a corrective decline.
Stop Loss: Below 4,030.00
Take Profit: 4,900–5,610
Alternative Scenario:
A decisive breakdown below 4,098.40 could open the way toward 3,720–3,290.62.
Sell Signal: Breakout and consolidation below 4,098.40.
Stop Loss: Above 4,165.00
Take Profit: 3,720–3,290.62
Elliott Wave Analysis
Gold experienced a significant correction during the previous week, finishing around the 4,135 area. Market pressure was also visible as a stronger US dollar and elevated Treasury yields weighed on the precious metal.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the larger weekly structure can still be interpreted as bullish, with a potential third wave of larger degree developing.
The previous corrective phase appears to have completed as a smaller fourth wave, while a fifth wave could now be developing on the daily chart.
The H4 structure suggests that the market may be attempting to build another upward sequence.
The most important level for the bullish scenario is 4,098.40.
If Gold remains above this level, the broader bullish wave structure remains valid and the market could eventually attempt a recovery toward 4,900–5,610.
However, a decisive break below 4,098.40 would significantly weaken the bullish count and could expose Gold to a deeper corrective move toward 3,720–3,290.62.
Because Gold is currently trading close to this critical area, traders should pay particular attention to price action around 4,098.40 before assuming that the next major directional move has started.
WTI CRUDE OIL Elliott Wave Analysis
Major Takeaways
Main Scenario:
Consider long positions from corrections above 87.70, with potential targets at 105.17–115.50.
Buy Signal: Price holds above 87.70 after a corrective decline.
Stop Loss: Below 86.20
Take Profit: 105.17–115.50
Alternative Scenario:
A breakdown below 87.70 could expose the market to 79.25–67.00.
Sell Signal: Breakout and consolidation below 87.70.
Stop Loss: Above 89.20
Take Profit: 79.25–67.00
Elliott Wave Analysis
WTI Crude Oil finished the previous week around $91.38, after moving lower from recent highs.
The larger Elliott Wave structure remains potentially bullish while the market holds above the important 87.70 support.
The weekly structure suggests that a larger corrective decline may have completed, allowing a new bullish sequence to develop.
On the lower time frames, the market is currently attempting to establish the next upward phase. A successful defense of 87.70 would therefore support the bullish scenario.
If the bullish count remains valid, the next major upside areas to monitor are 105.17 followed by 115.50.
However, a decisive breakdown below 87.70 would invalidate the immediate bullish setup and increase the probability of a deeper correction toward 79.25–67.00.
Recent market commentary also identifies resistance around the upper-$90 area, meaning that price action between the current level and approximately $97–98 could be important for confirming the next directional move.
Final Outlook
The current weekly Elliott Wave structures show a mixed market environment.
The major Forex pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CHF are currently facing potential downside pressure while their respective critical resistance levels remain intact.
In contrast, USD/CAD, Gold and WTI Crude Oil maintain potentially bullish larger-degree structures as long as their key support levels hold.
The most important approach for this week is therefore to monitor the critical levels rather than entering positions simply because a market has a bullish or bearish label.
A breakout and sustained consolidation beyond a critical Elliott Wave invalidation level can change the expected scenario and should always be considered before taking a trading decision.
Risk Warning
Elliott Wave analysis is a technical forecasting method and does not guarantee future market movements. Financial markets are highly volatile, and actual price movements can differ significantly from any forecast.
This analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research, use appropriate risk management, and never risk more than they can afford to lose.
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