Forex Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 19.10.26–25.10.26
Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis for Major Forex Pairs, Gold and WTI Crude Oil
Welcome to the SONY Net Business weekly Elliott Wave analysis for October 19–25, 2026. This report covers EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, GOLD (XAU/USD), and WTI Crude Oil.
The analysis identifies potential Elliott Wave structures, important support and resistance levels, bullish and bearish scenarios, and price areas to monitor during the upcoming trading week.
Elliott Wave counts are interpretive rather than certain. Each forecast therefore includes an alternative scenario to help traders evaluate changing market conditions.
1. EUR/USD Elliott Wave Analysis
Major Takeaways
Main Scenario: Corrective Recovery
EUR/USD closed the previous trading week near 1.1250 after recovering from support around 1.1160. The broader daily trend remains vulnerable, although a short-term upward correction may continue. [Source: RoboForex, October 16, 2026.]
- Market Bias: Short-term bullish correction; medium-term bearish structure.
- Critical Resistance: 1.1270
- Critical Support: 1.1160
- Potential Upside Targets: 1.1370–1.1465
- Alternative Downside Targets: 1.1110–1.1037
Bullish Confirmation: A sustained breakout and consolidation above 1.1270 could support a corrective advance toward 1.1370 and 1.1465.
Bearish Confirmation: A decisive breakdown below 1.1160 could expose the 1.1110–1.1037 support region.
Elliott Wave Analysis
The daily Elliott Wave structure suggests that EUR/USD may be developing a corrective recovery within a broader bearish trend.
The previous decline could represent a bearish impulsive sequence, while the latest rebound may be forming a corrective wave (A)-(B)-(C).
On the H4 chart, traders should monitor whether the recovery develops into a stronger upward sequence or loses momentum near resistance.
The 1.1270 level is the immediate decision point. A sustained break above it would strengthen the corrective recovery scenario, while rejection followed by a move below 1.1160 would favor renewed bearish pressure.
Alternative Scenario
If EUR/USD breaks and holds above 1.1465, the medium-term bearish interpretation would require reassessment. Conversely, a breakdown below 1.1037 could extend the downside structure.
2. GBP/USD Elliott Wave Analysis
Major Takeaways
Main Scenario: Bullish Recovery with Resistance Ahead
GBP/USD ended the previous week near 1.3335, supported by a weaker US dollar and recent gains in sterling. The pair's short-term outlook is constructive, but resistance remains important. [Source: Reuters, October 16, 2026.]
- Market Bias: Bullish while support holds.
- Critical Resistance: 1.3370
- Critical Support: 1.3235
- Potential Upside Targets: 1.3450–1.3560
- Alternative Downside Targets: 1.3179–1.3137
Bullish Confirmation: A sustained move above 1.3370 could open the way toward 1.3450 and 1.3560.
Bearish Confirmation: A breakdown below 1.3235 could expose the 1.3179–1.3137 support zone.
Elliott Wave Analysis
The daily structure suggests that GBP/USD may be attempting to extend a corrective upward movement after recovering from recent lows.
A possible bullish corrective sequence could continue if the pair maintains higher lows and breaks above nearby resistance. However, the larger trend should not be considered fully reversed without a sustained break of important resistance.
On the H4 timeframe, the structure around 1.3370 will help determine whether the current advance is developing into a stronger bullish leg or is approaching the end of a corrective wave.
The 1.3235 support level is particularly important. Holding above it would preserve the immediate bullish scenario, while a breakdown would increase the risk of a deeper correction.
Alternative Scenario
A decisive move below 1.3137 would weaken the bullish interpretation and indicate that sellers may be regaining control.
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3. USD/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis
Major Takeaways
Main Scenario: Corrective Recovery Within a Broader Bearish Structure
USD/JPY ended the previous week near 158.00. The pair remains sensitive to Japanese inflation developments, US Treasury yields, and changing expectations for Federal Reserve policy. [Sources: RoboForex and Reuters, October 16, 2026.]
- Market Bias: Short-term corrective recovery; broader bearish risk.
- Critical Resistance: 158.95–160.06
- Critical Support: 157.57
- Potential Upside Targets: 158.95–160.06
- Alternative Downside Targets: 156.47–152.88
Bullish Confirmation: A sustained breakout above 158.95 could extend the recovery toward 159.60 and 160.06.
Bearish Confirmation: A breakdown below 157.57 could expose 156.47, followed by 152.88 if selling pressure accelerates.
Elliott Wave Analysis
The daily Elliott Wave interpretation allows for a corrective upward wave following the preceding decline. Such a recovery would not necessarily signal a complete reversal of the broader bearish structure.
On the H4 chart, the price action around 158.95 is a key test for buyers. A successful breakout could extend the correction toward 160.06, where stronger resistance may emerge.
If the recovery fails and USD/JPY breaks below 157.57, the market could resume its downward movement.
The distinction between a corrective advance and a genuine bullish trend reversal will be important throughout the week.
Alternative Scenario
A sustained move above 160.06 would weaken the immediate bearish outlook. A breakdown below 152.88 would indicate a deeper bearish extension.
4. USD/CHF Elliott Wave Analysis
Major Takeaways
Main Scenario: Bearish Pressure Below Resistance
USD/CHF closed the previous week near 0.8240 as the Swiss franc benefited from dollar weakness and safe-haven demand. [Source: Reuters, October 16, 2026.]
- Market Bias: Bearish below resistance.
- Critical Resistance: 0.8334
- Critical Support: 0.8218
- Potential Downside Targets: 0.8190–0.8119
- Alternative Upside Targets: 0.8334–0.8400
Bearish Confirmation: A decisive breakdown below 0.8218 could extend the decline toward 0.8190 and 0.8119.
Bullish Confirmation: A sustained move above 0.8334 could trigger a recovery toward 0.8400.
Elliott Wave Analysis
The daily chart structure remains vulnerable to further downside while USD/CHF trades below the 0.8334 resistance zone.
The latest decline may represent an impulsive bearish wave, although additional price action is required to establish a reliable wave count. A short-term rebound could develop as a corrective wave before sellers attempt another move lower.
On the H4 timeframe, traders should monitor whether price forms a lower high near resistance. Such a structure would support the bearish interpretation.
A sustained break below 0.8218 would provide additional confirmation of downside momentum. If the pair instead breaks above 0.8334, the bearish scenario would need reassessment.
Alternative Scenario
A sustained breakout above 0.8400 would invalidate the immediate bearish bias and could support a larger recovery.
5. USD/CAD Elliott Wave Analysis
Major Takeaways
Main Scenario: Corrective Pullback Within a Broader Bullish Structure
USD/CAD ended the previous week around 1.4160 after retreating from higher levels. The short-term outlook is affected by Canadian inflation data, oil prices, and changes in US dollar sentiment. [Source: RoboForex, October 16, 2026.]
- Market Bias: Short-term bearish correction; broader bullish structure remains possible.
- Critical Resistance: 1.4226–1.4297
- Critical Support: 1.4153
- Potential Downside Targets: 1.4095–1.3993
- Alternative Upside Targets: 1.4226–1.4319
Bearish Confirmation: A sustained breakdown below 1.4153 could extend the correction toward 1.4095 and 1.3993.
Bullish Confirmation: A recovery above 1.4226 would improve the short-term outlook. A sustained breakout above 1.4297 would strengthen the bullish continuation scenario.
Elliott Wave Analysis
The daily Elliott Wave structure may be developing a corrective phase following the previous upward movement.
The larger bullish sequence remains a possible interpretation, but the short-term price action suggests that sellers may continue to test support before a new advance develops.
The 1.4153 level is the immediate support to monitor. If this area holds and price subsequently recovers, a new upward wave could develop toward 1.4226 and 1.4297.
A decisive breakdown below support would indicate a deeper correction, with 1.4095 and 1.3993 as the next reference levels.
Alternative Scenario
A sustained move above 1.4297 would strengthen the bullish continuation interpretation. A breakdown below 1.3993 would significantly weaken it.
6. GOLD (XAU/USD) Elliott Wave Analysis
Major Takeaways
Main Scenario: Cautious Outlook Amid Corrective Pressure
Spot Gold closed the previous week around $4,165 per ounce. Gold remains sensitive to US interest-rate expectations, Treasury yields, dollar movements, and geopolitical developments. [Sources: Reuters and StoneX, October 16–18, 2026.]
- Market Bias: Corrective and volatile while below resistance.
- Critical Support: 4,060
- Near-Term Resistance: 4,217–4,244
- Potential Upside Targets: 4,372–4,500
- Alternative Downside Targets: 4,000–3,900
Bullish Confirmation: A sustained recovery above 4,244 would improve the short-term structure and open the way toward 4,372.
Bearish Confirmation: A decisive breakdown below 4,060 would increase the risk of a deeper correction toward 4,000 and 3,900.
Elliott Wave Analysis
Gold has experienced substantial volatility and corrective pressure following its earlier advance.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the recent decline may represent a corrective sequence within a larger market structure. The precise count remains conditional and should be checked against the latest daily and H4 charts.
The 4,060 area is the key support reference for the upcoming week. If this zone holds and Gold recovers above nearby resistance, a corrective upward wave could develop toward 4,244 and 4,372.
However, failure to hold 4,060 would weaken the immediate recovery scenario and increase the possibility of a further decline.
The broader bullish interpretation should not be treated as confirmed until price action demonstrates sustained recovery and breaks important resistance.
Alternative Scenario
A decisive break below 3,900 would indicate a deeper correction than the immediate downside scenario anticipates. A sustained move above 4,500 would require reassessing the bearish corrective interpretation.
7. WTI CRUDE OIL Elliott Wave Analysis
Major Takeaways
Main Scenario: Bullish Momentum Amid Supply Concerns
WTI Crude Oil closed the previous week near $101.41 per barrel after rising sharply amid concerns about supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions. [Source: Reuters, October 16, 2026.]
- Market Bias: Bullish momentum, with elevated volatility.
- Critical Support: 98.00
- Near-Term Resistance: 105.00
- Potential Upside Targets: 109.80–115.50
- Alternative Downside Targets: 94.00–90.00
Bullish Confirmation: A sustained breakout above 105.00 could open the way toward 109.80 and potentially 115.50.
Bearish Confirmation: A decisive breakdown below 98.00 could expose 94.00 and 90.00.
Elliott Wave Analysis
WTI Crude Oil has experienced a strong upward move as supply concerns and geopolitical risks have supported prices.
The daily Elliott Wave structure may be developing an impulsive upward sequence, although a reliable wave count requires confirmation from the latest broker chart.
The 98.00 area is an important short-term support reference. If price holds above this level, another upward wave could develop toward the 105.00 resistance zone.
A sustained breakout above 105.00 would strengthen the bullish continuation scenario. However, a rejection at resistance followed by a breakdown below 98.00 could indicate that a corrective wave is developing.
Because crude oil can react sharply to geopolitical headlines, traders should account for gaps, slippage, and sudden changes in volatility.
Alternative Scenario
A sustained breakdown below 90.00 would substantially weaken the immediate bullish outlook and indicate a deeper correction.
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Final Market Outlook
The week of October 19–25, 2026, begins with a mixed technical picture across Forex and commodities.
EUR/USD and GBP/USD may extend their corrective recoveries if nearby resistance levels are broken. USD/JPY remains sensitive to the distinction between a short-term rebound and its broader trend, while USD/CHF remains vulnerable below resistance.
USD/CAD may continue correcting before its next major directional move. Gold requires close monitoring around support near 4,060, while WTI Crude Oil remains supported by recent supply concerns but faces potential volatility near resistance.
The most important principle is to wait for price confirmation rather than treating an Elliott Wave count as a certainty. A change in market structure can invalidate the preferred scenario, and alternative scenarios should always remain part of the analysis.
Risk Warning
Forex, Gold, and Crude Oil trading involve substantial risk. Elliott Wave analysis is subjective and does not guarantee future price movements. The levels and scenarios in this report are for educational and informational purposes only and do not constitute financial or investment advice.
Always verify prices with your broker, use appropriate risk management, and never trade with money you cannot afford to lose.
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