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Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast: 9–15 November 2026
Market Overview
The financial markets ended the week with a renewed focus on US dollar strength after the October Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report showed stronger-than-expected employment growth. The US economy added 165,000 jobs against expectations of approximately 65,000, while the unemployment rate declined to 4.1%.
This stronger employment data supported the US dollar and increased market volatility across major currency pairs, gold, and crude oil.
For the week of 9–15 November 2026, traders should closely monitor US inflation data, UK GDP, Eurozone GDP, central-bank expectations, and geopolitical developments.
The following Elliott Wave scenarios are based on the latest available market prices and technical reference levels. Wave counts are interpretive and should be confirmed on MetaTrader Daily (D1) and H4 charts.
1. EUR/USD – Bearish Pressure
Last Weekly Close : Approximately 1.11390
Market Bias : Bearish
EUR/USD faced renewed selling pressure following the strong US employment report. The pair closed near 1.11390, indicating that sellers remain active after the recent recovery attempt.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the recent upward movement may represent a corrective wave (B), with the possibility of another bearish leg developing if the pair fails to recover important resistance.
Key Resistance Levels:
- 1.1191
- 1.1229
- 1.1256
Key Support Levels:
- 1.1130
- 1.1100
- 1.1048
Main Elliott Wave Scenario:
As long as EUR/USD remains below 1.1229, bearish pressure may continue. A confirmed break below 1.1130 could expose 1.1100 and 1.1048.
Alternative Bullish Scenario:
A sustained daily close above 1.1229 could encourage a recovery towards 1.1256 and potentially 1.1300.
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2. GBP/USD – Bearish Correction
Last Weekly Close : Approximately 1.33481
Market Bias : Cautiously Bearish
GBP/USD experienced selling pressure towards the end of the week after failing to maintain its earlier upward momentum.
The pair remains vulnerable to a corrective decline, although the broader structure could still develop into a recovery if important support levels hold.
Key Resistance Levels:
- 1.3428
- 1.3464
- 1.3518
Key Support Levels:
- 1.3342
- 1.3300
- 1.3267
- 1.3194
Main Elliott Wave Scenario:
The short-term structure suggests that the market may be developing a corrective wave (B) before another potential downward movement.
A break below 1.3342 could extend the decline towards 1.3300 and 1.3267. Further weakness could expose 1.3194.
Alternative Bullish Scenario:
A sustained move above 1.3464 would weaken the bearish outlook and open the way towards 1.3518 and 1.3568.
3. USD/JPY – Corrective Bullish Structure
Last Weekly Close : Approximately 158.485
Market Bias : Bullish Above Support
USD/JPY maintained its upward momentum and closed near 158.485. Stronger US employment data supported the dollar, while market participants continued monitoring Japanese yen movements and US Treasury yields.
The Elliott Wave structure suggests that the pair may be developing another upward corrective leg.
Key Resistance Levels:
- 158.56
- 159.00
- 160.08
Key Support Levels:
- 157.88
- 157.24
- 156.50
Main Elliott Wave Scenario:
As long as USD/JPY holds above 157.88, buyers may attempt another move towards 158.56 and 159.00.
A confirmed breakout above 159.00 could open the way towards 160.08.
Alternative Bearish Scenario:
A break below 157.24 could weaken the bullish structure and expose 156.50 and lower support levels.
4. USD/CHF – Potential Bullish Recovery
Last Weekly Close : Approximately 0.8206
Market Bias : Corrective Recovery
USD/CHF recovered towards the end of the week after experiencing selling pressure earlier. The pair closed near 0.8206, with the latest daily trading range showing a recovery from lower levels.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the recent rebound may represent a corrective upward wave. Confirmation above nearby resistance will be important before considering a stronger bullish continuation.
Key Resistance Levels:
- 0.8221
- 0.8258
- 0.8280
Key Support Levels:
- 0.8150
- 0.8126
- 0.8090
Main Elliott Wave Scenario:
A sustained break above 0.8221 could extend the recovery towards 0.8258 and 0.8280.
Alternative Bearish Scenario:
If the pair fails to hold 0.8150, selling pressure could return towards 0.8126 and 0.8090.
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5. USD/CAD – Bullish Momentum
Last Weekly Close : Approximately 1.41276
Market Bias : Bullish
USD/CAD strengthened significantly during the week, supported by renewed US dollar demand and weakness in the Canadian dollar.
The pair closed near 1.41276, keeping the short-term technical structure positive.
The Elliott Wave outlook suggests that the market may be developing an upward impulsive or extended corrective movement.
Key Resistance Levels:
- 1.4137
- 1.4184
- 1.4250
Key Support Levels:
- 1.4046
- 1.4009
- 1.3954
- 1.3898
Main Elliott Wave Scenario:
As long as USD/CAD holds above 1.4046, buyers may attempt to break 1.4137. A confirmed breakout could open the way towards 1.4184 and 1.4250.
Alternative Bearish Scenario:
A daily close below 1.4009 could weaken the bullish structure and expose 1.3954 and 1.3898.
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6. GOLD (XAU/USD) – Recovery Within a Volatile Structure
Last Weekly Close : Approximately $4,065.72
Market Bias : Neutral to Corrective Bullish
Gold remained volatile during the week, but the market recovered towards the end of the trading period. XAU/USD closed around $4,065.72, maintaining a positive five-day performance despite pressure from the stronger US dollar.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold may be developing a corrective recovery after its previous decline. However, the next direction will depend on whether buyers can break important resistance.
Key Resistance Levels:
- $4,106
- $4,137
- $4,180
- $4,200
Key Support Levels:
- $4,048
- $4,000
- $3,950
- $3,900
Main Elliott Wave Scenario:
A sustained move above $4,106 could support a recovery towards $4,137 and $4,180.
A confirmed breakout above $4,180 may strengthen the bullish Elliott Wave structure and expose $4,200.
Alternative Bearish Scenario:
If gold fails to hold $4,048, the market could return towards $4,000 and $3,950. A break below $3,950 could expose $3,900.
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7. WTI Crude Oil – Strong Bearish Correction
Last Weekly Close : Approximately $90.83–$91.10
Market Bias : Bearish
WTI crude oil experienced a significant decline during the week, with prices falling approximately 13% over the five-day period.
The market was influenced by reduced geopolitical risk premiums, concerns about weakening demand, and expectations of increased oil supply. Renewed geopolitical tensions provided some support towards Friday's close, but the broader weekly structure remained weak.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the decline may represent an extended bearish corrective or impulsive leg.
Key Resistance Levels:
- $92.53
- $96.09
- $96.46
- $98.82
Key Support Levels:
- $90.89
- $88.12
- $87.13
- $85.00
Main Elliott Wave Scenario:
As long as WTI remains below $92.53, bearish pressure may continue. A confirmed break below $90.89 could expose $88.12 and $87.13.
Alternative Bullish Scenario:
A sustained breakout above $92.53 could encourage a recovery towards $96.09 and $96.46.
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Important Economic Events – 9–15 November 2026
The following economic releases may influence market volatility during the coming week:
Important : US CPI will be one of the most closely watched releases. A higher-than-expected inflation reading could support the US dollar, while softer inflation may weaken the dollar and support gold and major currency pairs.
Risk Management and Trading Considerations
- Always confirm Elliott Wave counts using the Daily (D1) and H4 timeframes.
- Wait for candle-close confirmation before treating a support or resistance breakout as valid.
- Avoid entering trades immediately before high-impact economic releases without an appropriate risk plan.
- Use stop-loss protection and calculate position size according to account equity and risk tolerance.
- Elliott Wave scenarios are conditional and may change when the market invalidates the expected structure.
Disclaimer
This weekly Elliott Wave analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial or investment advice.
Forex, Gold, and Crude Oil trading involve substantial risk, and losses may exceed expectations when leverage is used. Elliott Wave counts are subjective interpretations of market structure, and all price levels and targets are approximate.
Always verify the latest prices and chart structure on your own broker's MetaTrader platform before making any trading decision.
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