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Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast: 16-22 Nov 2026
Market Overview
The financial markets enter the week of 16–22 November with a strong US dollar, elevated inflation concerns, and increasing expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening.
The October US CPI report and rising producer-price inflation have strengthened expectations of a possible December Fed rate hike. Meanwhile, the market is watching US retail sales, FOMC meeting minutes, UK inflation, Eurozone inflation, and Canadian CPI.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, several major currency pairs are showing extended corrective or impulsive movements. Gold remains under pressure, while crude oil is approaching an important long-term support region.
This analysis uses the latest available weekly closing references and technical levels. Elliott Wave counts are interpretive scenarios, not guaranteed market outcomes.
1. EUR/USD – Strong Bearish Pressure
Last Weekly Close : Approximately 1.10218
Market Bias : Bearish
EUR/USD continued its downward movement during the week, falling to a fresh multi-month low as the US dollar strengthened following elevated inflation data.
The pair is trading close to an important support region around 1.1044. The current Elliott Wave structure suggests that a bearish impulsive wave may still be developing.
Key Resistance Levels:
- 1.1096
- 1.1126
- 1.1140
- 1.1200
- 1.1272
Key Support Levels:
- 1.1044
- 1.1000
- 1.0970
- 1.0950
Main Elliott Wave Scenario:
The primary outlook remains bearish while EUR/USD trades below 1.1140–1.1200.
A confirmed daily breakout below 1.1044 could extend the bearish wave towards 1.1000 and 1.0970, followed by 1.0950.
Alternative Bullish Scenario:
If buyers defend 1.1044, a corrective recovery towards 1.1140–1.1200 could develop.
A sustained move above 1.1272 would invalidate the immediate bearish outlook and suggest a deeper upward correction.
2. GBP/USD – Bearish Breakdown Risk
Last Weekly Close : Approximately 1.32125
Market Bias : Bearish
GBP/USD experienced renewed selling pressure as the US dollar strengthened and the British pound approached an important long-term support region.
The Elliott Wave structure indicates that the pair may be developing an extended bearish corrective movement.
Key Resistance Levels:
- 1.3406
- 1.3470
- 1.3558
Key Support Levels:
- 1.3215
- 1.3194
- 1.3092
- 1.2965
Main Elliott Wave Scenario:
As long as GBP/USD remains below 1.3406–1.3470, bearish pressure may continue.
A confirmed break below 1.3194 could expose 1.3092. Further selling pressure may extend the decline towards 1.2965.
Alternative Bullish Scenario:
If the pair holds above 1.3194 and recovers towards 1.3406, a corrective bullish wave may develop.
A sustained breakout above 1.3470 would improve the bullish outlook and expose 1.3558.
3. USD/JPY – Bullish Momentum Near 160.00
Last Weekly Close : Approximately 159.676
Market Bias : Bullish, but Intervention Risk Remains
USD/JPY continued its strong recovery during the week and approached the psychologically important 160.00 level.
The pair has broken above its previous resistance region around 158.70–159.00, supporting the current bullish Elliott Wave structure.
However, the possibility of Japanese government intervention remains an important risk near 160.00.
Key Resistance Levels:
- 160.00
- 160.37
- 160.74
- 163.00
Key Support Levels:
- 159.00
- 158.70
- 157.90
- 157.25
Main Elliott Wave Scenario:
As long as USD/JPY maintains support above 158.70–159.00, the bullish structure remains active.
A confirmed daily close above 160.00 could extend the upward movement towards 160.74 and potentially 163.00.
Alternative Bearish Scenario:
Failure to hold 158.70 could trigger a corrective decline towards 157.90 and 157.25.
A break below 157.25 would significantly weaken the current bullish Elliott Wave structure.
4. USD/CHF – Strong Bullish Recovery
Last Weekly Close : Approximately 0.8375
Market Bias : Bullish
USD/CHF experienced a strong recovery, breaking above the important 0.8310–0.8315 resistance region.
The pair is now testing its previous highs around 0.8395. The Elliott Wave structure suggests that an upward corrective or impulsive extension may continue if buyers maintain control.
Key Resistance Levels:
- 0.8395
- 0.8407
- 0.8416
- 0.8468
- 0.8500
Key Support Levels:
- 0.8315
- 0.8302
- 0.8209
- 0.8125
Main Elliott Wave Scenario:
A sustained move above 0.8395–0.8416 could open the way towards 0.8468 and 0.8500.
The bullish outlook remains constructive while the pair holds above the former breakout region around 0.8310–0.8315.
Alternative Bearish Scenario:
A return below 0.8302 could weaken the recovery and expose 0.8209.
A sustained break below 0.8125 would invalidate the current bullish recovery scenario and increase the risk of a deeper decline.
5. USD/CAD – Bullish Momentum Approaching Resistance
Last Weekly Close : Approximately 1.42698
Market Bias : Bullish, Near Major Resistance
USD/CAD continued to strengthen as the US dollar gained momentum against the Canadian dollar.
The pair advanced approximately 2.4% from an important technical pivot region, bringing the market closer to a major resistance cluster.
The Elliott Wave structure suggests that the recent upward movement may continue, although resistance near 1.4320 could produce a corrective pullback.
Key Resistance Levels:
- 1.4320
- 1.4365
- 1.4527
- 1.4792
Key Support Levels:
- 1.4275
- 1.4200
- 1.4046
- 1.3990
Main Elliott Wave Scenario:
A confirmed breakout and daily consolidation above 1.4320 could strengthen the bullish structure and open the way towards 1.4527.
Further bullish momentum could expose 1.4792.
Alternative Bearish Scenario:
If USD/CAD fails to break 1.4320 and starts a corrective decline, support around 1.4275 and 1.4200 will become important.
A sustained move below 1.4200 would increase the risk of a deeper correction towards 1.4046.
6. GOLD (XAU/USD) – Bearish Correction Continues
Last Weekly Close : Approximately $3,873.24
Market Bias : Bearish
Gold remained under significant selling pressure during the week as rising US inflation expectations and a stronger US dollar reduced demand for the precious metal.
XAU/USD closed below the psychological $3,900 level, maintaining its bearish daily structure.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the market may still be developing a downward impulsive or extended corrective wave.
Key Resistance Levels:
- $3,950
- $4,000
- $4,050
- $4,085
- $4,150
Key Support Levels:
- $3,870
- $3,851
- $3,790
- $3,700
- $3,600
Main Elliott Wave Scenario:
The bearish outlook remains active while Gold trades below $4,085.
A confirmed break below $3,790 could accelerate the downward movement towards $3,700 and potentially $3,600.
Alternative Bullish Scenario:
If buyers defend the $3,790 support region and Gold recovers above $4,000, a corrective bullish movement could develop.
A sustained breakout above $4,085 would weaken the immediate bearish outlook, while a move above $4,150 would provide stronger evidence of a bullish recovery.
7. WTI Crude Oil – Bearish Structure Near Major Support
Last Weekly Close : Approximately $88.02
Market Bias : Bearish / Oversold Recovery Risk
WTI crude oil remained under pressure and recorded another negative weekly performance.
Concerns about increasing global oil supply, weaker US demand, and changing geopolitical risk premiums have contributed to the recent decline.
The market is approaching an important technical support region around $86, which may become a major decision point for the next Elliott Wave movement.
Key Resistance Levels:
- $89.32
- $92.50
- $94.90
- $97.40
Key Support Levels:
- $86.00
- $85.00
- $81.00
- $75.80
Main Elliott Wave Scenario:
As long as WTI remains below $92.50, the broader bearish structure remains dominant.
A confirmed daily close below $86 could open the way towards $81.00.
If selling pressure continues, the next extended downside targets may be $75.80.
Alternative Bullish Scenario:
The market is approaching an important support region, and oversold conditions could trigger a short-term recovery.
A sustained move above $92.50 could open the way towards $94.90 and $97.40.
Weekly Elliott Wave Summary
Important Economic Events – 16–20 November 2026
The following economic releases may influence market volatility during the coming week.
Key Event to Watch :
The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes on November 18 will be particularly important.
Investors will look for additional clues about inflation risks, future interest-rate decisions, and the possibility of further monetary tightening.
Strong US retail sales or hawkish FOMC commentary could support the US dollar. Conversely, weaker economic data or less hawkish Fed signals could trigger a corrective recovery in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and Gold.
Risk Management and Trading Considerations
- Confirm Elliott Wave counts on both Daily (D1) and H4 timeframes.
- Wait for a confirmed candle close before considering a support or resistance breakout valid.
- Avoid opening positions immediately before high-impact economic releases without a defined risk plan.
- Use appropriate stop-loss protection and calculate position size according to account equity.
- Be particularly cautious with USD/JPY near 160.00 because of potential intervention risk.
- Do not assume that every corrective wave will complete according to the initial Elliott Wave count.
Disclaimer
This weekly Elliott Wave analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial or investment advice.
Forex, Gold, and Crude Oil trading involve substantial risk, particularly when leverage is used. Elliott Wave counts are subjective interpretations of market structure, and all price levels and targets are approximate.
Always verify the latest prices and chart structure on your broker's MetaTrader platform before making any trading decision.
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